Things continue to evolve in the world of high leverage. Devin Williams secured his first save since returning from the injured list, and his fill-in, Trevor Megill, could return soon, giving the Brewers a lethal one-two punch in the late innings. Emmanuel Clase became the first Cleveland pitcher to record four saves in four days since José Mesa in 1995. Veterans Paul Sewald and Craig Kimbrel remain on the outside, looking in for save chances on their respective teams. Although Torey Lovullo would not place the “closer” label on Justin Martinez, he’s recorded the team’s three saves since August 5.
As for Kimbrel, it’s about velocity, the speed of his pitches, and runners on base against him. His splits on four-seam fastballs above and below 94 mph cannot be ignored, and in his last outing, he allowed four stolen bases:
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San Francisco removed Camilo Doval as the closer and demoted him to Triple-A. One must note that the quotes associated with this move hint at him returning to save situations in September, but he must throw more strikes and find a way to mix pitches with his slider effectively. He’s had tremendous results with the slider, but hitters are sitting on other pitches or waiting until he has to throw strikes. Ryan Walker will be the interim closer.
There have been multiple changes in our leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
- Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.
- Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Shared Saves: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a match-up-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities.
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Relievers on the Rise
Seranthony Domínguez (BAL): Through eight games since his arrival in Baltimore, he hasn’t been scored upon in seven of those outings, while posting nine strikeouts against two walks (23.3 K-BB percentage) with a 0.75 WHIP and a 3.11 SIERA over eight innings. His strike percentage could be slightly higher (63.6 percent in this sample), but his 15.5 swinging strike percentage and 65.3 percent contact rate allowed are encouraging. Although the team has used a matchup-based approach in the late innings, he recorded a save on August 10 and may be in line as the preferred save option while Craig Kimbrel works through another “reset.” Domínguez can be streaky, but here are his splits-by-pitch with the Orioles:
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Michael Kopech (LAD): Yes, I overhyped him a bit in the preseason, but the talent for high-leverage events was there. He’s reached a new level since being traded to the Dodgers. Over his first six games with Los Angeles, he’s allowed two baserunners out of 21 batters, giving up a hit and a walk while recording 10 strikeouts (42.9 K-BB percentage) with a 0.32 WHIP through 6.1 scoreless innings. He started using a more diversified approach after a blown save in Miami on July 7, and his new team prefers his cutter over the slider, but note the changes in his usage patterns over the past two months:
Taking this one step further, his splits-by-pitch in the 11 games from July 8 on:
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There is no guarantee he will receive save chances soon, but he’s positioned himself in the Dodgers’ bullpen hierarchy for more high-leverage opportunities moving forward.
Closer Concerns
Victor Vodnik (COL): The good news is that he’s converted eight of 11 save chances since July 6. However, he’s allowed multiple runs in two of his past four appearances and has posted a 1.46 WHIP with a 9.4 K-BB percentage in the second half. He’s not throwing as many strikes (60.3 strike percentage) and is producing fewer whiffs while yielding more contact:
This may be a blip, or the league adjusting to his arsenal, but he should be monitored closely through the end of August. It’s funny how things come full circle in the world of closers, as Tyler Kinley has been thriving in recent outings. He’s amid a nine-game streak in which he hasn’t allowed a run, with 10 strikeouts versus three walks and a 0.41 WHIP his past 9.2 innings.
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Save Stashes
- Aroldis Chapman (PIT)
- Evan Phillips; Michael Kopech (LAD)
- Tyler Kinley (COL)
Ancillary Save Options
- Tanner Scott (SDP)
- Kris Bubic (KCR)
- Griffin Jax (MIN)
Ratio Relievers
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios. All relievers listed have a WHIP less than one, a SIERA less than 2.75, a K-BB percentage above 20, a strike percentage over 66 percent, and a swinging strike rate over 15 percent in the second half:
- Edwin Uceta (TBR)
- Jeff Hoffman (PHI)
- Anthony Banda (LAD)
- Jake Cousins (NYY)
- Tanner Scott (SDP)
- Jeremiah Estrada (SDP)
Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS
Statistical Credits (through August 13): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey
(Top photo of Michael Kopech: Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)
Greg Jewett is a contributor to The Athletic who started writing about fantasy baseball in 2013, which led to a specialty covering high-leverage relievers. He spent two years writing bullpen reports on FanGraphs and developed his own closer charts. Greg uses advanced analytics along with team reports to provide the most detailed updates on the most volatile position in baseball. Follow Greg on Twitter @gjewett9
